ezel-de
0x1e0dcfb541ef1d0ccd3f928749e746813b17bd03
- Realised P&L
- $1.0k
- Volume
- $130.8k
- Markets traded
- 11
- Open portfolio
- $133.84
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded11
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration51.8% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample7 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)85.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration96.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? · Yes | 0.150 | 0.085 | $129.28 | −$99.70 |
| Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027? · Yes | 0.035 | 0.025 | $4.54 | −$1.70 |
| Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.010 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.0k |
| Will SpaceX IPO on June 12, 2026? · No | 0.074 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$253.47 |
| MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 12-18? · No | 0.055 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$210.25 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.3kat 0.438Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
- +$666.83at 0.640Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?
- +$280.56at 0.860Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 31?
- +$175.96at 0.449Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?
- +$48.10at 0.080Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-20 19:09 | Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? | BUY | 0.64 | $1.2k |
| 06-10 19:28 | Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.01 | $1.0k |
| 06-07 14:45 | Will SpaceX IPO on June 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.0444807526 | $54.38 |
| 06-04 21:01 | Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? | BUY | 0.2 | $13.20 |
| 06-04 20:57 | Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027? | SELL | 0.0847185629 | $5.66 |
| 06-04 20:53 | Will SpaceX IPO on June 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.0894767638 | $119.58 |
| 05-19 15:51 | Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 31? | BUY | 0.86 | $28.38 |
| 05-19 15:50 | Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 31? | BUY | 0.86 | $191.78 |
| 05-19 15:49 | Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 31? | BUY | 0.86 | $1.5k |
| 05-18 18:36 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.49 | $458.42 |
| 05-18 18:34 | Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode? | SELL | 0.1754901961 | $8.95 |
| 05-18 18:33 | Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode? | SELL | 0.19 | $71.63 |
| 05-13 22:12 | Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode? | SELL | 0.87 | $20.91 |
| 05-13 22:05 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.43 | $903.00 |
| 05-13 16:38 | MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 12-18? | BUY | 0.027 | $28.00 |