12edhuwadf
0x1db044f4c39182852f5e0300751036fe02458c60
- Realised P&L
- $35.47
- Volume
- $121.6k
- Markets traded
- 30
- Open portfolio
- $1.0k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded30
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration40.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample24 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)37.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration99.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · No | 0.997 | 1.000 | $1.0k | +$3.02 |
| Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 35°C on July 1? · No | 0.996 | 1.000 | $6.00 | +$0.02 |
| Will BULK launch a token by June 30, 2027? · Yes | 0.710 | 0.420 | $3.78 | −$2.61 |
| Wimbledon ATP: Jaume Munar vs Francisco Cerundolo · Francisco Cerundolo | 0.760 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$8.36 |
| Will Trump say "Bitcoin" in May? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.59 |
| Will Novak Djokovic be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? · Yes | 0.058 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.45 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$50.38at 0.780Argentina Open: Andrea Pellegrino vs Tomas Etcheverry
- +$45.52at 0.545Open Sud de France: Martin Damm vs Luca Nardi
- +$16.08at 0.994US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026?
- +$5.61at 0.670Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026?
- +$2.86at 0.530Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 15?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-30 09:19 | Wimbledon ATP: Jaume Munar vs Francisco Cerundolo | BUY | 0.76 | $8.36 |
| 06-30 09:16 | Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 35°C on July 1? | BUY | 0.996 | $5.98 |
| 06-30 09:15 | GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.896 | $4.86 |
| 06-10 02:25 | GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.978 | $5.30 |
| 06-10 02:22 | Will BULK launch a token by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.71 | $6.38 |
| 05-25 09:30 | Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.67 | $11.39 |
| 05-25 09:29 | Will Trump say "Bitcoin" in May? | BUY | 0.27 | $1.84 |
| 03-15 21:31 | Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31? | BUY | 0.995 | $5.74 |
| 03-15 21:30 | Will The Secret Agent win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | BUY | 0.997 | $5.75 |
| 03-15 21:28 | Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.997 | $1.0k |
| 03-15 21:27 | Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.989 | $632.96 |
| 03-15 21:27 | Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? | SELL | 0.976 | $5.42 |
| 03-15 21:26 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? | SELL | 0.896 | $5.82 |
| 03-15 21:25 | Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 15? | SELL | 0.963 | $6.36 |
| 03-07 23:10 | Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.991 | $634.24 |