peasant
0x1c72797cd4b9b83f42e287144e334c4de347dfb6
- Realised P&L
- $93.8k
- Volume
- $11.57M
- Markets traded
- 319
- Open portfolio
- $3.9k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded319
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration32.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration52.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.016 | 0.007 | $2.0k | −$2.3k |
| Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.015 | 0.017 | $1.6k | +$148.08 |
| Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? · Yes | 0.146 | 0.101 | $201.00 | −$91.00 |
| Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April? · No | 0.777 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.4k |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 31? · No | 0.485 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$169.5k |
| Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? · No | 0.700 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.4k |
| Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? · No | 0.380 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$32.32 |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 17? · No | 0.565 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$76.4k |
| Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? · Yes | 0.658 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$28.4k |
| Will Lando Norris finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? · No | 0.610 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$305.00 |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 10? · No | 0.547 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$82.8k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$96.8kat 0.502Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?
- +$63.9kat 0.706Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?
- +$54.2kat 0.517Will there be 155,000,000-160,000,000 votes cast in the U.S. Presidential Election?
- +$52.8kat 0.445Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?
- +$52.2kat 0.613Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-15 00:26 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.8398542476 | $4.4k |
| 06-15 00:05 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.8418203554 | $22.4k |
| 06-15 00:04 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.836 | $2.8k |
| 06-14 23:58 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.839 | $10.5k |
| 06-14 23:56 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.8168022728 | $40.8k |
| 06-14 14:01 | Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? | BUY | 0.691 | $109.17 |
| 06-14 13:54 | Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? | BUY | 0.521 | $65.17 |
| 05-24 02:22 | Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? | SELL | 0.985 | $1.1k |
| 05-23 19:09 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY | 0.34 | $850.00 |
| 05-14 13:32 | Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? | BUY | 0.65 | $2.6k |
| 05-14 00:30 | Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? | SELL | 0.9860168697 | $4.2k |
| 04-14 12:40 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.2527951591 | $3.7k |
| 04-10 14:31 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.3495736632 | $5.1k |
| 04-10 14:29 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.12 | $23.57 |
| 04-10 14:27 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | SELL | 0.3717061454 | $927.73 |