0x182846c328023ad80bc53d1b22f6ec5ed4ff593b
- Realised P&L
- $-45.02
- Volume
- $331.00
- Markets traded
- 9
- Open portfolio
- $23.08
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-13.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded9
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration82.7% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample4 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration53.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027? · No | 0.834 | 0.880 | $12.32 | +$0.64 |
| Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.120 | $4.56 | −$1.52 |
| Will Perplexity’s market cap be between $20B and $30B at market close on IPO day? · Yes | 0.030 | 0.063 | $3.15 | +$1.65 |
| SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027? · Yes | 0.400 | 0.600 | $3.00 | +$1.00 |
| Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027? · No | 0.660 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$47.52 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.62at 0.270Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027?
- +$0.13at 0.891Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027?
- +$0.00at 0.037Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?
- +$-0.12at 0.190Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-09 11:52 | Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.87 | $7.83 |
| 07-04 15:37 | Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? | BUY | 0.037 | $1.18 |
| 06-12 06:08 | Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.77 | $3.85 |
| 03-27 22:29 | Will Perplexity’s market cap be between $20B and $30B at market close on IPO day? | BUY | 0.03 | $1.50 |
| 03-27 22:27 | Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.16 | $6.08 |
| 03-21 11:38 | Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.19 | $1.14 |
| 03-21 11:37 | Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027? | BUY | 0.66 | $40.26 |
| 03-21 11:37 | SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027? | BUY | 0.4 | $4.00 |
| 03-21 11:37 | Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027? | BUY | 0.66 | $7.26 |
| 03-21 11:37 | Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.19 | $1.14 |
| 02-28 03:02 | Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027? | BUY | 0.27 | $4.59 |
| 02-26 16:36 | Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027? | BUY | 0.891 | $8.91 |