0x1809dAF1EE84D9741b3C4cfB75a54c055ceC44c4-1769455450427
0x1809daf1ee84d9741b3c4cfb75a54c055cec44c4
- Realised P&L
- $44.32
- Volume
- $365.12
- Markets traded
- 7
- Open portfolio
- $14.58
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar12.1%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded7
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration89.6% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample4 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration67.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · No | 0.483 | 0.478 | $9.90 | −$0.10 |
| Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.150 | $4.69 | −$0.31 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? · Yes | 0.016 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31? · Yes | 0.053 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$49.05at 0.109Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
- +$5.68at 0.130Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?
- +$-1.00at 0.080Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?
- +$-6.00at 0.070Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-27 18:27 | Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | BUY | 0.16 | $5.00 |
| 07-27 18:22 | Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.4829999925 | $10.00 |
| 04-18 19:11 | Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | BUY | 0.01 | $1.00 |
| 04-15 15:41 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? | BUY | 0.08 | $1.00 |
| 04-15 12:19 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? | SELL | 0.84 | $6.72 |
| 04-12 16:51 | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31? | BUY | 0.0529999513 | $1.00 |
| 04-04 17:32 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? | BUY | 0.13 | $1.04 |
| 04-04 15:44 | Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | BUY | 0.0389999635 | $1.00 |
| 03-20 09:37 | Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | BUY | 0.0279999733 | $1.00 |
| 03-10 17:25 | Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | BUY | 0.045999957 | $1.00 |
| 03-06 19:38 | Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | BUY | 0.1009999102 | $1.00 |
| 03-02 19:03 | Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | BUY | 0.1689999559 | $3.00 |
| 02-18 09:47 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | BUY | 0.0389999635 | $1.00 |
| 01-27 14:54 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | BUY | 0.1699999759 | $5.00 |