67314
0x1787a58ffd3dc076703d2480bb3350a69e3244a9
- Realised P&L
- $-473.42
- Volume
- $79.2k
- Markets traded
- 83
- Open portfolio
- $129.53
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded83
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration31.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)36.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration70.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New England Revolution vs. Houston Dynamo: O/U 4.5 · Over | 0.230 | 0.150 | $93.15 | −$49.68 |
| Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.790 | 0.940 | $39.48 | +$6.30 |
| Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? · Yes | 0.220 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$78.32 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$734.62at 0.540Will Juliana Stratton be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Illinois?
- +$553.79at 0.130Will John Oliver say "People" 10+ times on Last Week Tonight?
- +$485.36at 0.240Will there be at least 1,200 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?
- +$355.18at 0.190Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" this week? (March 22)
- +$294.40at 0.420Will Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club win on 2025-12-19?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-10 14:12 | Will TISZA win 50-54% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.78 | $259.74 |
| 03-25 18:46 | Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 200m? | SELL | 0.76 | $252.32 |
| 03-24 15:53 | Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 200m? | BUY | 0.78 | $258.96 |
| 03-24 07:41 | Will Michael Olise record the most assists in the 2025-26 UEFA Champions League? | SELL | 0.65 | $258.05 |
| 03-22 15:36 | Will Michael Olise record the most assists in the 2025-26 UEFA Champions League? | BUY | 0.7 | $277.90 |
| 03-16 08:16 | Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.57 | $230.85 |
| 03-16 08:15 | Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.57 | $314.07 |
| 03-16 02:32 | Will Trump say "President Xi" this week? (March 22) | SELL | 0.18 | $32.94 |
| 03-15 10:05 | Will Trump say "President Xi" this week? (March 22) | BUY | 0.47 | $86.01 |
| 03-14 08:54 | Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.55 | $525.80 |
| 03-10 15:58 | Will turnout in the first round of the Texas Republican Senate primary be between 2,400,000 and 2,600,000 voters? | SELL | 0.973 | $358.06 |
| 03-06 08:39 | Al Kholood Saudi Club vs. Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club: Both Teams to Score | BUY | 0.85 | $329.80 |
| 02-28 07:08 | Will turnout in the first round of the Texas Republican Senate primary be between 2,400,000 and 2,600,000 voters? | BUY | 0.76 | $279.68 |
| 02-27 21:57 | U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027? | SELL | 0.59 | $160.48 |
| 02-26 15:10 | Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026? | SELL | 0.78 | $5.46 |