0x157d17e71d4a4be74c2ed9b17b4f47025c7bafec
- Realised P&L
- $-25.93
- Volume
- $5.8k
- Markets traded
- 9
- Open portfolio
- $79.09
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded9
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration68.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample7 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)28.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration62.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.085 | $49.26 | −$2.90 |
| Putin out as President of Russia by August 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.018 | 0.011 | $29.83 | −$16.10 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$87.60at 0.163Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$41.21at 0.730Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?
- +$-14.97at 0.033GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026?
- +$-16.05at 0.161Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$-23.72at 0.190Will Serbia vs. Denmark end in a draw?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-27 18:25 | Putin out as President of Russia by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0177087672 | $45.94 |
| 07-27 18:25 | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.08 | $46.36 |
| 07-21 21:00 | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.09 | $104.31 |
| 06-10 10:10 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.161 | $16.05 |
| 06-10 10:10 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1629999931 | $17.06 |
| 06-09 16:04 | Will Serbia win on 2026-06-09? | BUY | 0.0960799176 | $35.24 |
| 06-09 16:04 | Will Serbia vs. Denmark end in a draw? | BUY | 0.1899999939 | $23.72 |
| 06-04 17:18 | GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026? | BUY | 0.0334035317 | $14.97 |
| 06-04 17:17 | GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.27 | $39.96 |
| 05-14 08:04 | Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections? | BUY | 0.7299999999 | $111.41 |