0x14cCdB66c7B9dC997325F91460b1a7A1d1C4a458-1780151702162
0x14ccdb66c7b9dc997325f91460b1a7a1d1c4a458
- Realised P&L
- $147.28
- Volume
- $2.7k
- Markets traded
- 7
- Open portfolio
- $21.19
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar5.5%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded7
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration51.1% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample5 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration56.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Iran target a Arab country on August 29, 2026? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.150 | $12.00 | −$8.80 |
| Will Iran target Ukraine by September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.098 | 0.060 | $9.19 | −$5.81 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$84.88at 0.339Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 27?
- +$48.22at 0.675Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31?
- +$31.02at 0.430Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 31?
- +$1.92at 0.410Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 30?
- +$-4.14at 0.360Netanyahu out by end of 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-01 09:04 | Will Iran target a Arab country on August 29, 2026? | BUY | 0.26 | $20.80 |
| 07-30 20:40 | Will Iran target Ukraine by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.0979431929 | $15.00 |
| 07-23 18:42 | Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 31? | BUY | 0.43 | $60.63 |
| 07-23 18:40 | Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 30? | BUY | 0.41 | $3.28 |
| 07-23 18:38 | Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 27? | SELL | 0.42 | $59.64 |
| 07-20 21:30 | Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 27? | BUY | 0.3548266254 | $50.00 |
| 07-18 16:49 | Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 27? | BUY | 0.3299999985 | $144.90 |
| 07-18 16:47 | Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.35 | $144.86 |
| 07-17 12:51 | Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.3599999992 | $149.00 |
| 05-30 18:32 | Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? | BUY | 0.6746741015 | $100.00 |