rs9852
0x144ee8bb8e94853e5fe399aa3201a794fc5699b6
- Realised P&L
- $-172.94
- Volume
- $106.1k
- Markets traded
- 67
- Open portfolio
- $17.38
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded67
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration28.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample46 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)41.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration57.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Lighter reach $6 before 2027? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.090 | $10.00 | +$0.00 |
| Will Nice win on 2026-05-29? · Yes | 0.480 | 1.000 | $4.17 | +$2.17 |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04? · Yes | 0.550 | 1.000 | $1.82 | +$0.82 |
| Will Hyperliquid dip to $40 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.530 | 0.370 | $1.40 | −$0.60 |
| Lakers vs. Knicks · Lakers | 0.380 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$35.00 |
| Knicks vs. 76ers · 76ers | 0.560 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in August? · Yes | 0.035 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Thunder vs. Bucks · Bucks | 0.230 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| KBO: LG Twins vs. Hanwha Eagles · Hanwha Eagles | 0.560 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Timberwolves vs. Nuggets · Nuggets | 0.590 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$70.00 |
| Jazz vs. Heat · Heat | 0.750 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Rockets vs. Pacers · Pacers | 0.350 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$30.00 |
| Pelicans vs. 76ers · Pelicans | 0.220 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$12.00 |
| Nuggets vs. Grizzlies · Nuggets | 0.520 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Pistons vs. Magic · Magic | 0.350 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$30.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$74.29at 0.350Celtics vs. Rockets
- +$55.38at 0.520Pistons vs. Raptors
- +$21.67at 0.480Hawks vs. Pacers
- +$20.85at 0.590Lakers vs. Cavaliers
- +$20.71at 0.420Hornets vs. Rockets
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-25 07:19 | KBO: LG Twins vs. Hanwha Eagles | BUY | 0.5599998432 | $1.00 |
| 07-03 04:16 | Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04? | BUY | 0.55 | $1.00 |
| 06-28 08:38 | Will Hyperliquid dip to $40 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.5299998781 | $2.00 |
| 05-27 08:52 | Will Nice win on 2026-05-29? | BUY | 0.479999952 | $2.00 |
| 05-16 05:31 | Timberwolves vs. Spurs | BUY | 0.5 | $5.00 |
| 04-29 07:10 | Nuggets vs. Timberwolves | BUY | 0.3399999633 | $5.00 |
| 04-22 16:11 | Knicks vs. Hawks | BUY | 0.5 | $4.85 |
| 04-06 16:01 | Will Lighter reach $6 before 2027? | BUY | 0.0899999919 | $10.00 |
| 03-01 13:43 | Pistons vs. Magic | BUY | 0.3499999953 | $30.00 |
| 03-01 13:41 | Timberwolves vs. Nuggets | BUY | 0.589999997 | $70.00 |
| 02-16 15:54 | Nets vs. Cavaliers | BUY | 0.8599999989 | $15.00 |
| 02-16 15:53 | Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.99 | $192.54 |
| 02-16 15:43 | Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.991 | $192.73 |
| 02-11 07:07 | Knicks vs. 76ers | BUY | 0.5599999969 | $50.00 |
| 02-11 07:07 | Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.991 | $3.0k |