pardonnn
0x11e5d46d3e2c9a776bf68b65a4bd0f7fb1459e34
- Realised P&L
- $-56.42
- Volume
- $83.5k
- Markets traded
- 19
- Open portfolio
- $132.33
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded19
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration36.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample15 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration98.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? · No | 0.796 | 1.000 | $130.00 | +$26.52 |
| Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.001 | $2.33 | −$6.98 |
| Will Armenia win Eurovision 2025? · Yes | 0.003 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$28.62 |
| Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025? · Yes | 0.003 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.94 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$9.00at 0.910MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?
- +$5.45at 0.950Will Ethereum hit $8,000 by December 31?
- +$4.30at 0.961Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals?
- +$2.73at 0.880Will Ethereum hit $7,000.00 by March 31?
- +$2.29at 0.949Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-18 15:53 | Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.002 | $1.74 |
| 06-18 15:53 | Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.002 | $7.57 |
| 06-18 15:53 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.796 | $103.48 |
| 05-29 09:38 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.91 | $91.00 |
| 04-01 03:14 | Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.007 | $56.57 |
| 01-31 11:33 | Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.009 | $72.73 |
| 10-31 14:03 | Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025? | BUY | 0.003 | $20.94 |
| 10-31 14:03 | Will Ethereum hit $8,000 by December 31? | BUY | 0.95 | $103.55 |
| 10-31 14:02 | Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? | SELL | 0.969 | $110.86 |
| 09-21 13:54 | Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.003 | $18.86 |
| 08-30 15:43 | Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.004 | $25.15 |
| 06-28 16:12 | Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? | BUY | 0.949 | $108.58 |
| 05-09 13:26 | Will Armenia win Eurovision 2025? | BUY | 0.003 | $28.62 |
| 04-29 14:03 | Will Francis Arinze be the next pope? | BUY | 0.002 | $10.05 |
| 04-27 13:12 | Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? | BUY | 0.961 | $105.92 |