0x10b3021521d1e2045db59bc79106f99e77c8d408
- Realised P&L
- $-3.59
- Volume
- $608.00
- Markets traded
- 19
- Open portfolio
- $34.13
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded19
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration68.5% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample17 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)58.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration26.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? · No | 0.859 | 1.000 | $9.00 | +$1.27 |
| Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.930 | 0.958 | $8.62 | +$0.25 |
| Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? · No | 0.966 | 0.966 | $4.83 | −$0.00 |
| Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? · No | 0.930 | 0.915 | $4.58 | −$0.07 |
| Will Perplexity’s market cap be between $20B and $30B at market close on IPO day? · Yes | 0.029 | 0.063 | $3.15 | +$1.70 |
| Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? · Yes | 0.730 | 0.231 | $2.31 | −$4.99 |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.195 | $1.36 | −$0.59 |
| Will Russia rejoin the G7 before 2027? · Yes | 0.068 | 0.018 | $0.28 | −$0.74 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$20.48at 0.500Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027?
- +$7.74at 0.070Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?
- +$0.44at 0.820U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027?
- +$0.37at 0.445Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
- +$0.32at 0.090U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-08 08:27 | Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? | BUY | 0.966 | $4.83 |
| 06-29 00:16 | Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.23 | $1.84 |
| 06-23 00:58 | China coup attempt before 2027? | BUY | 0.96 | $6.72 |
| 06-21 13:31 | Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.857 | $6.00 |
| 06-14 02:36 | Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.32 | $1.60 |
| 06-11 16:36 | Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027? | BUY | 0.065 | $1.30 |
| 06-03 11:18 | Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.77 | $3.85 |
| 05-25 04:31 | Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.28 | $1.40 |
| 05-25 04:30 | Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? | BUY | 0.85 | $4.25 |
| 05-22 03:58 | Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.83 | $4.15 |
| 05-22 03:58 | Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.968 | $4.84 |
| 05-22 03:58 | U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? | BUY | 0.09 | $1.17 |
| 04-25 11:07 | Will Russia rejoin the G7 before 2027? | BUY | 0.068 | $1.02 |
| 04-25 11:07 | Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? | BUY | 0.936 | $13.10 |
| 04-25 11:07 | Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.445 | $4.00 |