alexandrinocapuchino
0x0c3c2889ef3a2dca6065e2e9184ea5569d1a9f9d
- Realised P&L
- $5.44
- Volume
- $1.4k
- Markets traded
- 18
- Open portfolio
- $257.00
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded18
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- ClearProfit concentration25.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample13 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)92.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration21.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Merab Dvalishvili fight Rob Font next? · No | 0.998 | 0.995 | $55.72 | −$0.17 |
| Hyperbeat FDV above $400M one day after launch? · No | 0.977 | 0.978 | $55.72 | +$0.03 |
| Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027? · No | 0.974 | 0.975 | $50.67 | +$0.03 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the WI-02 House seat? · Yes | 0.970 | 0.942 | $48.02 | −$1.45 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the MI-11 House seat? · Yes | 0.956 | 0.938 | $46.88 | −$0.92 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.05at 0.959Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?
- +$1.77at 0.963Will Raphinha be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$1.59at 0.970Will Ben Shelton be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?
- +$1.37at 0.938Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April?
- +$0.69at 0.966Will the US strike 14 countries in 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-20 07:51 | Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? | BUY | 0.9379999977 | $20.58 |