dcf3
0x0a49d154ac2ef3eaeb3b3c3140c8a8cbf6952434
- Realised P&L
- $-54.10
- Volume
- $106.9k
- Markets traded
- 37
- Open portfolio
- $53.48
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded37
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration67.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample31 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)83.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration91.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.009 | 0.004 | $48.77 | −$76.64 |
| Will Tencent have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? · No | 0.997 | 1.000 | $1.19 | +$0.00 |
| Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? · No | 0.995 | 1.000 | $1.19 | +$0.01 |
| Will Baidu have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? · No | 0.998 | 1.000 | $1.17 | +$0.00 |
| Will ByteDance have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? · No | 0.998 | 1.000 | $1.16 | +$0.00 |
| Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2025 National League Championship? · Yes | 0.008 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.84 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$13.97at 0.005Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
- +$2.24at 0.963Will Donald Trump be inaugurated?
- +$2.03at 0.980Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in November?
- +$0.95at 0.340Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election?
- +$0.86at 0.493Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-28 17:26 | Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? | BUY | 0.995 | $1.18 |
| 06-28 17:24 | Will Tencent have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? | BUY | 0.9969999992 | $1.19 |
| 06-28 17:23 | Will ByteDance have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? | BUY | 0.998 | $1.16 |
| 06-28 17:22 | Will Baidu have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? | BUY | 0.9979997322 | $1.17 |
| 05-02 09:57 | Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on May 2? | BUY | 0.995 | $1.12 |
| 05-02 09:55 | Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.12 |
| 05-02 09:54 | Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.12 |
| 03-14 04:02 | Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 March 9-15? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.49 |
| 03-14 04:02 | Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 March 9-15? | BUY | 0.984 | $1.00 |
| 03-14 04:02 | Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 March 9-15? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.13 |
| 02-28 04:45 | Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.009 | $53.41 |
| 02-28 04:44 | Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on February 28? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.25 |
| 02-28 04:42 | Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on February 28? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.05 |
| 02-28 04:41 | Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on February 28? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.06 |
| 12-01 18:03 | Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.005 | $69.85 |