0x0a3c73f8e790f2b1ab695a1bff17697ecf5c0511
- Realised P&L
- $1.6k
- Volume
- $93.6k
- Markets traded
- 48
- Open portfolio
- $523.52
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.8%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded48
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration64.9% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample45 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)77.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration54.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? · No | 0.890 | 0.985 | $282.78 | +$27.14 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500? · Yes | 0.357 | 0.355 | $205.90 | −$1.40 |
| Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.023 | 0.029 | $18.94 | +$3.82 |
| US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? · No | 0.795 | 0.954 | $13.04 | +$2.17 |
| Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.352 | 0.071 | $2.86 | −$11.23 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.7kat 0.804Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?
- +$184.38at 0.900Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
- +$183.99at 0.969Netanyahu out by March 31?
- +$76.22at 0.994US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
- +$60.72at 0.870Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-20 13:26 | Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? | SELL | 0.999 | $110.60 |
| 07-20 13:26 | Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? | SELL | 0.999 | $209.79 |
| 07-07 03:59 | Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.58 | $958.36 |
| 07-07 03:05 | Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.57 | $39.90 |
| 07-07 03:01 | Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.59 | $3.73 |
| 07-07 03:01 | Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.58 | $4.23 |
| 07-07 03:01 | Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.58 | $4.26 |
| 07-07 03:00 | Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.58 | $3.65 |
| 07-07 03:00 | Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.58 | $3.67 |
| 07-07 03:00 | Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.58 | $3.66 |
| 07-07 03:00 | Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.58 | $3.65 |
| 07-07 03:00 | Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.58 | $1.88 |
| 07-07 02:07 | Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.58 | $21.15 |
| 06-30 19:56 | Iran leadership change by June 30? | SELL | 0.998 | $79.84 |
| 06-28 22:03 | Netanyahu out by June 30? | SELL | 0.997 | $239.28 |