0x05D4d08CA39AA9D9c84ce40E4437401bF02e78C4-1772813016121
0x05d4d08ca39aa9d9c84ce40e4437401bf02e78c4
- Realised P&L
- $-220.50
- Volume
- $3.2k
- Markets traded
- 12
- Open portfolio
- $74.35
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-6.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded12
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration71.6% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample11 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)54.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration84.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? · No | 0.947 | 0.989 | $62.68 | +$2.68 |
| UK announces transfer of Falklands to Argentina in 2026? · Yes | 0.372 | 0.040 | $11.67 | −$98.33 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.67at 0.600Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 10?
- +$2.05at 0.310Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?
- +$0.22at 0.890US forces enter Iran by March 14?
- +$0.19at 0.981US forces enter Iran by March 7?
- +$0.14at 0.824Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-28 13:45 | UK announces transfer of Falklands to Argentina in 2026? | BUY | 0.3722739932 | $110.00 |
| 03-24 18:16 | US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31? | SELL | 0.0288241654 | $10.29 |
| 03-14 05:35 | US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31? | SELL | 0.14 | $16.66 |
| 03-10 17:07 | US forces enter Iran by March 14? | SELL | 0.91 | $10.22 |
| 03-10 17:06 | Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? | SELL | 0.829618047 | $20.13 |
| 03-08 20:06 | Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 10? | BUY | 0.6 | $10.00 |
| 03-08 20:02 | US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.2099999968 | $50.00 |
| 03-08 06:25 | Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026? | SELL | 0.3734449612 | $12.04 |
| 03-07 13:31 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | SELL | 0.4409995548 | $20.04 |
| 03-07 13:04 | QatarEnergy resumes LNG production by March 14? | SELL | 0.0704714395 | $50.79 |
| 03-07 08:06 | France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? | SELL | 0.2025106543 | $8.08 |
| 03-07 08:03 | QatarEnergy resumes LNG production by March 14? | BUY | 0.0796247753 | $57.39 |
| 03-07 08:03 | QatarEnergy resumes LNG production by March 14? | SELL | 0.9226069418 | $19.67 |
| 03-07 05:29 | Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.55 | $27.73 |
| 03-06 16:31 | Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026? | BUY | 0.3099999836 | $10.00 |