gleaner
0x02983788c3019edf99ebc7adab674e002210eadc
- Realised P&L
- $1.2k
- Volume
- $124.0k
- Markets traded
- 159
- Open portfolio
- $734.23
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar1.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded159
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration15.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)54.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration93.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New England Revolution vs. Houston Dynamo: O/U 3.5 · Under | 0.790 | 0.675 | $683.10 | −$116.38 |
| Over $200M raised on Coinbase in 2026? · Yes | 0.910 | 0.490 | $29.89 | −$25.62 |
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026? · No | 0.570 | 0.605 | $11.49 | +$0.66 |
| Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026? · Yes | 0.410 | 0.145 | $9.13 | −$16.70 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$353.60at 0.320Will the total number of TSA passengers for February 16 - 22 be between 17,000,000 and 17,500,000?
- +$334.60at 0.180Will "Jamie" be said 3+ times on the first Joe Rogan Experience episode of the week? (March 29)
- +$280.44at 0.240Will Team Spirit qualify to Blast Open Rotterdam Playoffs?
- +$232.39at 0.690Will 5-6 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?
- +$164.34at 0.530Will Sergey Brin be 3rd richest person on March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-11 07:06 | Will NYC have between 2 and 3 inches of precipitation in April? | SELL | 0.93 | $49.29 |
| 04-11 05:40 | Will 5-6 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026? | SELL | 0.86 | $1.2k |
| 04-07 10:38 | Will NYC have between 2 and 3 inches of precipitation in April? | BUY | 0.87 | $46.11 |
| 03-31 02:54 | Will MFK Karviná win on 2026-04-11? | SELL | 0.12 | $45.60 |
| 03-30 00:48 | Will MFK Karviná win on 2026-04-11? | BUY | 0.76 | $288.80 |
| 03-25 05:39 | Will 5-6 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026? | BUY | 0.69 | $943.23 |
| 03-24 09:02 | Will Melania say "Initiative" during Fostering the Future Together event on March 24? | SELL | 0.49 | $109.76 |
| 03-24 05:58 | Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 28, 2026? | SELL | 0.09 | $18.45 |
| 03-24 05:52 | Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? | SELL | 0.46 | $140.76 |
| 03-24 04:04 | Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.09 | $18.45 |
| 03-24 01:31 | Will Melania say "Initiative" during Fostering the Future Together event on March 24? | BUY | 0.54 | $120.96 |
| 03-23 10:24 | Will Team Spirit qualify to Blast Open Rotterdam Playoffs? | BUY | 0.24 | $88.56 |
| 03-23 00:47 | Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? | BUY | 0.46 | $140.76 |
| 03-21 20:17 | Left-Wing Wave in French Mayoral Elections? | SELL | 0.33 | $197.37 |
| 03-21 17:47 | Will "Jamie" be said 3+ times on the first Joe Rogan Experience episode of the week? (March 29) | SELL | 0.88 | $8.80 |