0x012e0ac6a22e13b137bc218e5838edc703596e32
- Realised P&L
- $4.35
- Volume
- $470.87
- Markets traded
- 15
- Open portfolio
- $47.83
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded15
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration50.9% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample13 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)30.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration24.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027? · No | 0.650 | 0.850 | $11.90 | +$2.80 |
| Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027? · No | 0.620 | 0.830 | $6.64 | +$1.68 |
| Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.773 | 0.910 | $6.37 | +$0.96 |
| Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027? · Yes | 0.350 | 1.000 | $6.00 | +$3.90 |
| Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.500 | 0.945 | $5.67 | +$2.67 |
| Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027? · No | 0.780 | 0.925 | $5.55 | +$0.87 |
| Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027? · Yes | 0.200 | 0.165 | $4.46 | −$0.94 |
| Modi out by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.107 | 0.073 | $0.73 | −$0.34 |
| Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027? · Yes | 0.220 | 0.075 | $0.52 | −$1.00 |
| Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering? · Yes | 0.250 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.50 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.64at 0.930Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?
- +$0.38at 0.466Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
- +$0.18at 0.933China coup attempt before 2027?
- +$0.05at 0.880Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026?
- +$0.00at 0.900U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-11 13:11 | Modi out by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.946 | $4.73 |
| 07-02 00:56 | Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.92 | $4.60 |
| 06-19 02:25 | U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? | BUY | 0.9 | $5.40 |
| 05-20 19:39 | Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? | BUY | 0.19 | $2.09 |
| 05-20 19:38 | Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.2 | $5.40 |
| 05-20 19:38 | Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.88 | $4.40 |
| 05-20 19:38 | Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.13 | $1.04 |
| 05-20 19:38 | Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? | BUY | 0.933 | $12.13 |
| 05-20 19:37 | Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? | BUY | 0.067 | $1.14 |
| 05-20 19:37 | Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.595 | $3.57 |
| 04-26 15:23 | Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.466 | $6.06 |
| 04-24 13:49 | Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? | BUY | 0.925 | $9.25 |
| 04-24 13:49 | Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? | BUY | 0.076 | $1.06 |
| 04-24 13:49 | Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.62 | $8.68 |
| 04-24 13:49 | Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.38 | $3.04 |