PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

0x012e0ac6a22e13b137bc218e5838edc703596e32

Realised P&L
$4.35
Volume
$470.87
Markets traded
15
Open portfolio
$47.83

Can you copy this trader?

unrealisticMultiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.9%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
BlockerMarkets traded15
Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
BlockerProfit concentration50.9% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
CautionSettled sample13 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)30.8%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration24.9% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027? · No0.6500.850$11.90+$2.80
Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027? · No0.6200.830$6.64+$1.68
Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.7730.910$6.37+$0.96
Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027? · Yes0.3501.000$6.00+$3.90
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? · No0.5000.945$5.67+$2.67
Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027? · No0.7800.925$5.55+$0.87
Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027? · Yes0.2000.165$4.46$0.94
Modi out by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.1070.073$0.73$0.34
Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027? · Yes0.2200.075$0.52$1.00
Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering? · Yes0.2500.000$0.00$1.50

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
07-11 13:11Modi out by December 31, 2026?BUY0.946$4.73
07-02 00:56Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027?BUY0.92$4.60
06-19 02:25U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? BUY0.9$5.40
05-20 19:39Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?BUY0.19$2.09
05-20 19:38Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027?BUY0.2$5.40
05-20 19:38Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026?BUY0.88$4.40
05-20 19:38Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026?BUY0.13$1.04
05-20 19:38Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?BUY0.933$12.13
05-20 19:37Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?BUY0.067$1.14
05-20 19:37Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?BUY0.595$3.57
04-26 15:23Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?BUY0.466$6.06
04-24 13:49Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?BUY0.925$9.25
04-24 13:49Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?BUY0.076$1.06
04-24 13:49Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027?BUY0.62$8.68
04-24 13:49Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027?BUY0.38$3.04