0x002218bdf6026eecf51bf4720f1cdfb06281e70f
- Realised P&L
- $-6.47
- Volume
- $626.68
- Markets traded
- 229
- Open portfolio
- $12.31
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded229
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration31.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)70.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration34.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Spotify say "Churn" during earnings call? · Yes | 0.917 | 0.895 | $4.25 | −$0.11 |
| Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year? · No | 0.880 | 0.905 | $1.12 | +$0.03 |
| Will Spotify say "Meta" during earnings call? · No | 0.880 | 0.895 | $1.11 | +$0.02 |
| Will Timothée Chalamet be the #1 searched person on Google this year? · No | 0.984 | 0.978 | $1.08 | −$0.01 |
| Will Spotify say "Premium" 20+ times during earnings call? · No | 0.850 | 0.810 | $1.04 | −$0.05 |
| Will Chuck Norris be the #1 searched passing on Google this year? · No | 0.810 | 0.760 | $1.02 | −$0.07 |
| Will Palantir say "Warp Speed" during earnings call? · Yes | 0.800 | 0.735 | $1.00 | −$0.09 |
| Will Spotify say "Fitness" during earnings call? · Yes | 0.650 | 0.555 | $0.93 | −$0.16 |
| Will Spotify say "World Cup" during earnings call? · No | 0.770 | 0.530 | $0.75 | −$0.34 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.63at 0.125Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$6.18at 0.150Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Norway vs France FIFA World Cup Match?
- +$5.07at 0.290Will the announcers say "VAR" during the Spain vs Belgium FIFA World Cup Match?
- +$4.97at 0.180Will the announcers say "History" during the Croatia vs Ghana FIFA World Cup Match?
- +$3.45at 0.240Will Procter & Gamble say "Customer" 5+ times during earnings call?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-31 18:44 | Will Spotify say "Premium" 20+ times during earnings call? | BUY | 0.849999922 | $1.09 |
| 07-31 14:12 | Will Palantir say "Warp Speed" during earnings call? | BUY | 0.8 | $1.09 |
| 07-31 11:06 | Will Spotify say "Fitness" during earnings call? | BUY | 0.6499998211 | $1.09 |
| 07-31 10:21 | Will Spotify say "World Cup" during earnings call? | BUY | 0.7699999011 | $1.09 |
| 07-31 06:48 | Will Spotify say "Churn" during earnings call? | BUY | 0.92 | $1.09 |
| 07-31 06:41 | Will Spotify say "Meta" during earnings call? | BUY | 0.8799999677 | $1.09 |
| 07-31 05:26 | Will Spotify say "Churn" during earnings call? | BUY | 0.91 | $1.09 |
| 07-31 03:56 | Will Spotify say "Churn" during earnings call? | BUY | 0.92 | $1.09 |
| 07-31 03:56 | Will Spotify say "Churn" during earnings call? | BUY | 0.92 | $1.09 |
| 07-30 01:39 | Will Apple say "Tariff" during earnings call? | SELL | 0.851 | $0.83 |
| 07-30 00:19 | Will Amazon say "AI / Artificial Intelligence" 10+ times during earnings call? | SELL | 0.91 | $0.01 |
| 07-29 21:54 | Will Amazon say "Third Party Seller" during earnings call? | BUY | 0.6699998709 | $1.09 |
| 07-29 21:03 | Will Apple say "iCloud" during earnings call? | BUY | 0.2899998643 | $1.09 |
| 07-29 12:38 | Will Apple say "Siri" during earnings call? | BUY | 0.8599999211 | $1.09 |
| 07-29 10:57 | Will Meta say "Cloud" during earnings call? | SELL | 0.787 | $0.04 |